The papal election sparks bets totaling $40 million worldwide

In a striking blend of religion and risk-taking, there was over $40 million wagered globally as bettors tried to predict who will be the next pope, the successor to Pope Francis.

This betting frenzy transformed the sacred papal conclave into a global gambling spectacle, with various platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket at the lead.

The betting landscape

According to the two leading platforms, over $30 million was spent on Polymarket and $10.6 million on Kalshi.com. Despite the noise, American Cardinal Robert Prevost entered the conclave with less than 1% odds on the latter.

Out of more than 33,000 trades on the platform, only 416 bets with a total of just under $450,000 were placed on his candidacy. This unexpected outcome kept substantial payouts away from some bettors. One Kashi user turned a bet of $526 into $52,641, showing us that it is sometimes worth taking the risk.

Kalshi compared the conclave to a major sporting event because of the engagement it got. However, the total amount wagered seems a bit insignificant compared to the $132 million spent on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. While Kalshi continues to offer bets on political outcomes for pop culture developments, Polymarket remains off-limits to U.S. users due to regulatory restrictions set out by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The prediction markets function like future contracts as they reward users based on the outcome of real-world events. Betting markets allow you to wager on almost anything, and there is a mixed record “predicting” outcomes. The 2024 election was called correctly, but they notably fumbled in 2016 when the “smart money” suggested British voters would reject Brexit and that Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump.

Dartmouth College Professor of Economics Eric Zitzewitz commented:

“The papal conclave markets are one of the ones that you’d expect to be the least well-calibrated since they only get a data point every decade or two. The process is much more opaque than almost any other political selection process, no tell-all memoirs, even well after the fact.”

Surprise selection

The election of Cardinal Robert Prevost marked a historic moment as he became the first American to serve as the Bishop of Rome. Prevost took the pontifical name of Pope Leo XIV. His extensive international experience includes the two decades he served as a missionary and a bishop in Peru.

Prevost had the recent role as the head of the Vatican Dicastery for Bishops and positioned himself as a unifying figure within the church. His election was unexpected, but, in reviewing his record, the cardinal electors might have considered several factors.

Prevost could be an effective administrator as head of the church. He has decades of pastoral work experience and was a prior general of the entire Augustinian order.

President Donald Trump also congratulated Prevost on becoming the first U.S. pope:

"What excitement, and what a great honour for our country. I look forward to meeting Pope Leo XIV. It will be a very meaningful moment."

However, according to posts on his X account, Prevost has a history of criticising Trump and Vice President JD Vance's policies. JD Vance, a converted Catholic, met with Pope Francis shortly before his death, and he was conspicuously tepid in his praise of Prevost, distancing himself by saying he was "sure that millions of American Catholics" would pray for Prevost but not suggesting that he would do so himself.

Prevost's inclusive approach aligns with Pope Francis' focus on outreach to the marginalised and environmental issues.

He also spoke in Spanish during his address, but did not say anything in English. It looks like Prevost may not follow in late Pope Francis' footsteps, but he will likely continue walking in the same direction.

Why markets failed to see the American Pope coming

Many academics and journalists gave insights into who might be among the favourites based on their various CVs and reputations in the church. The dynamics inside the Sistine Chapel were impossible for market participants to predict from the outside.

All that they could do was watch "Conclave" and, based on the movie, assume there's plenty of drama and shifting allegiances. There are no tools to measure what Catholics believe is the spirit of God guiding the cardinals’ choice.

The ethics and evolution of papal betting

Wagering on papal elections might seem like a strange thing to bet on, but actually, it has a long history. Historical records indicate that gambling on papal conclaves dates back to the 15th century, with documented instances in the 16th century. During this period, gambling was also common on the outcomes of secular Italian elections.

However, in 1591, Pope Gregory XIV imposed a penalty of excommunication against those who place bets on the outcome or length of papal elections. This ban was lifted in 1918.

The practice has seen a resurgence in modern times, especially with online casinos and other betting platforms. While some view it as entertainment, others raise ethical concerns.

The Catholic Church's Catechism warns that gambling becomes "morally unacceptable" if it affects a person's life. Despite these concerns, the allure of predicting the next Pope continues to captivate the public's imagination, blending the sacred with the speculative in a unique cultural phenomenon.

Bookmakers like Paddy Power, known for turning current events into betting opportunities, reported record-high engagement under the niche category of betting on the Pope. Religious scholars and Vatican insiders expressed concern over this trend, saying it is disrespectful. In contrast, others see it reflecting how even the most sacred institutions are fair game in today's "trending now" culture.