The near-miss effect: How almost winning fuels player behaviour

Have you ever experienced the exhilarating rush when you narrowly missed a win? It's that electrifying feeling when victory seems just a hair's breadth away. This is what psychologists term the 'near-miss effect'.

Some commercial gambling systems, like instant lotteries and slot machines, are intentionally designed to produce a higher number of near misses than would be expected by chance alone. But why does this happen, and how does it affect players in casino gaming?

Gamblers usually act like they think they can influence game outcomes, a major part of the psychology behind gambling addiction.

You often see a number of lucky charms and betting rituals like whispering to dice, throwing gently for a low number or choosing a lottery number by using family dates of birth. All those are intricately linked to the near-miss effect!

The science behind the near-miss effect

Research in psychology and neuroscience shows that near misses activate the reward pathways in the brain, the same as actual wins. A study published in the Journal of Gambling Studies found that near misses cause an increase in dopamine release, the same neurotransmitter associated with pleasure and motivation.

The near-miss effect has a rich history in psychology, dating back to Skinner’s (1953) discussion of conditional reinforcement. Skinner argued that near-miss outcomes could increase gambling persistence by acting as a secondary reinforcer to gambling wins.

B.F. Skinner discussed conditional reinforcement, known as the first scientific account of near misses. He assumed that conditional reinforcement is one of the plausible methods casinos use to exploit players.

The original hypothesis was based on two important factors:

• That conditional reinforcement is based on pairing.
• Near misses do increase the frequency of betting responses.

When Skinner proposed this, the available data supported a pairing account of conditional reinforcement, and the reinforcing effect of near misses was a sensible prediction.

How the near-miss effect influences player behaviour

The near miss is seen as positive feedback that the player is learning the game, which causes reinforcement for further play. More research has explored the link between near misses and the expectancy theory, or the idea that a player's behaviour is motivated by the expected outcome of that behaviour.

Because near misses can feel like progress, they can make players believe a win is just around the corner. That's why they are among the most common cognitive biases among gamblers. The feeling of “almost hitting the jackpot” can push a player to keep betting, even when rationally they should stop.

If you have ever experienced a near miss, you will be familiar with the intense frustration and excitement. These feelings, mixed together, make the game more engaging. The emotional attachment keeps players invested and willing to spend more time and money on the game.

Near misses also often create a false sense of control, making players believe they are developing skills or improving their chances of winning. This is mostly seen in sports betting, where bettors may think they are refining their strategy, even though the outcomes remain unpredictable.

The near-miss effect on sports betting

Because sports betting is particularly prone to the near-miss effect, bettors who lose by a narrow margin often feel encouraged to bet again.

Let's look at how this plays out in sports betting:

Just like sports betting, casinos are busy making use of the near-miss effect.

Casino games and the near-miss effect

Casinos are all about money, and the near-miss effect brings lots of monetary value to them. As such, these institutions are taking advantage of it.

Here's how they do it in different casino games scenarios:

Slot machines: The master of near misses

Modern slot machines are designed to produce near-miss outcomes. They work when a player spins the reels and lands two jackpot symbols, with the third stopping short of the winning combination, causing the illusion that they were too close to a big win to stop now.

Roulette: Due for a win illusion

In roulette, players experience near misses when the ball lands one or two slots away from their chosen number or colour. Although it is purely a game of chance, players believe that they are getting closer to a win.

Why the near-miss effect works in casinos

Casino design and the near-miss effect

Slot machines may be random, but modern slots use random number generators, increasing the likelihood of near-miss outcomes. 

They use a "weighted reels" system, where certain symbols appear more frequently. This creates a tease effect, where players often see two jackpot symbols in a row but never the third. Despite seeming close to the desired outcome, your chances of winning the jackpot are slim.

Casinos also use strategic visual design, sounds and music to shape your casino experience and make near misses feel exciting. Happy, upbeat sounds, flashing lights, and animation create a "winning effect". These cues create emotional highs, making players feel they are making progress, whereas, in reality, they are losing money.

Have you ever noticed that there are no clocks, windows or distractions in casinos? This is not by "accident"; it is designed to keep visitors focused on one thing. The same goes for online casinos' web design created specifically to keep players hooked.

Loss aversion is another psychological principle that benefits the casino because people fear losing more than they enjoy winning. Casinos return a small payout and still trigger a winning sound, and games like roulette highlight "just missed" bets to make players they were close to winning.

If you understand how near misses work, you can gamble smarter and avoid falling into the trap. Here's how to stay in control and ensure near misses don't influence your decisions.

Recognise the near-miss effect for what it is

The first step to take to avoid the near-miss trap is understanding that it is an illusion. It does not matter if you play slots, roulette, or card games, a near miss is not a sign that you are close to winning. It is just part of the game design. Tell yourself that each spin, hand or roll is independent, so the odds don't change because you almost won.

One of the most effective ways to avoid chasing near misses is to decide before playing how much money you're willing to lose.

Gamble responsibly and enjoy the game for what it is: a way to entertain and have fun!