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Understanding and overcoming the gambler’s fallacy

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Join us as we take a closer look at the psychology of the gambler’s fallacy, what it is and how to escape it.


In the world of online gambling, there are many superstitions and beliefs of luck. One such phenomenon is the ‘gambler’s fallacy’, which can keep players betting even when they’re losing.

This article explores the gambler’s fallacy, what it is, and how to avoid being trapped by it.

What is the gambler’s fallacy?

The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy, occurs when one believes that if an event occurs frequently, the future outcomes will differ from those that have already occurred.

So, if you flip a coin and it lands on heads two times in a row, you may believe the next coin toss will land on tails.

The gambler’s fallacy can heavily influence one's thinking and how one participates in gaming. The one thing to be careful of is having the gambler’s fallacy influence other areas of your life regarding decision-making and thinking.

It has been noted that the gambler’s fallacy affects everyone in terms of judgement, behaviour, and decision-making. It has affected the behaviour of different professionals, from psychologists to judges, referees, and loan officers.

The psychology of the gambler’s fallacy

In simple terms, the gambler’s fallacy is a cognitive bias, a systematic pattern that doesn’t correlate with reality.

Cognitive bias can cause us to become irrational in our searches, evaluations, interpretations, judgements, and decision-making. It can also be considered an illusion of transparency, which makes us believe in our own thoughts and emotions more than the facts or others.

Casinos often capitalise on this fallacy, as some players will increase their bets because they believe they are due a win.

With the gambler’s fallacy, people believe that streaks of outcomes are bound to even out, which could make them bet on a tails landing instead of a heads landing, even if the coin has landed on heads five times in a row.

It’s that belief that because it has landed on heads so many times, it’s due to provide a tail’s outcome. But the reality is that the outcome can go either way with games of chance. It may land on tails, but there’s also a chance it’ll land on heads for the sixth time. The outcome is unpredictable.

Tips to prevent the gambler’s fallacy

Something important to remember is that no dice or casino game keeps track of its previous outcomes; as such, the future rolls or game hand outcomes are unaffected. We always advise players to be mindful and stick to responsible gambling. Here are some mandatory tips to follow:

  • Understand that every outcome is unique and independent from the previous.
  • Don’t keep wagering when you’re on a losing streak because the outcome should change.
  • Take every game round for what it is: a new opportunity with a new outcome.
  • Understand that no strategy or skill can change your odds with slots and other games of chance.
  • Be aware that these games use random number generators to award a random and fair outcome.
  • Don’t make bigger wagers for a win; sticking to even-money bets can still increase your odds of winning.
  • Don’t assume that something you did for the previous round is why you got a winning result. I understand it’s all random.

Every game round should be considered fresh and new, not a follow-up on a previous round. There is no continuance or pattern in games of chance; the outcome is random and unpredictable and most importantly, go out and have fun responsibly.

Published: May 24, 2024

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Article by Polly

CasinoWow Contributor

Hey guys, my name is Polina but my friends and colleagues call me Polly. I am truly passionate about online casino gaming and exploring the different online gambling experiences. I'm really into diving deep into topics and researching all the details. My aim is to gather the best information and write interesting articles for all the readers at CasinoWow.

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