Brazil's gambling market is now legal, but is it stable? Explore the first six months of regulation, filled with rising risks and rapid change.
Brazil’s legal gambling market seems to have entered a turbulent phase , marked by many changes and challenges.
The newly regulated market launched at the beginning of 2025. It was celebrated for its transformative steps towards economic growth and modernisation. However, amid its growing pains, it has hit a low, facing a number of consumer complaints, changes in tax policies and pressure on foreign operators .
While there has been a significant rise in online gambling activity, we are left asking, “Has the honeymoon period come to an end?”
Industry pushes back with tax hikes
To balance out the controversial hike in the Tax on Financial Operations (IOF) , the Brazilian government is considering a significant tax increase for betting platforms. This move has received a lot of criticism from both the public and financial sectors, as industry stakeholders argue that the new tax structure would only push operators toward unregulated channels .
The proposed tax changes would squeeze the profit margins and discourage foreign investment. One major European betting firm stated that it is noticing a shift from regulatory optimism to fiscal pressure, and that the government’s approach could undermine the market they have worked so hard to legalise.
New tax rules on foreign payments
Moreover, the new tax rules on foreign payments introduced late last month are expected to accelerate the localisation of the online gambling market . Thanks to the new framework, all cross-border transactions would be subject to higher scrutiny and taxation. This would ultimately make it more difficult for international casinos to process payments.
This shift is ideal for local platforms, as they are better positioned to navigate Brazilian gambling regulations and local financial systems. However, it also raises concerns about a reduction in competition and consumer choice .
And when there’s a lack of choice, analysts have warned that it might only strengthen the unlicensed market, thanks to its flexible payment options and, of course, fewer restrictions .
A rise in consumer complaints
The consumer protection platform, Consumidor.gov.br , has received over 1,000 complaints regarding gambling services over the past couple of months.
These complaints include a range of issues, such as delayed payments, bad customer support, and concerns about responsible gambling practices.
The increase in complaints shows the growing pains of a rapidly expanding market still establishing its regulatory footing . The Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) has vowed to enforce stricter compliance measures, but critics believe these enforcement measures are still underdeveloped. Another issue that might drive players toward unlicensed and illegal casinos .
Brazil at a crossroads
Even with all that is currently going on, we can’t deny that Brazil’s gaming market remains one of the most promising in Latin America . So much so that it has already issued dozens of casino licenses to provide gamblers with a range of safe and entertaining options to play . It is also projected to generate revenues exceeding $7 billion by the end of 2025, and its user base is expected to surpass 11 million by 2029, indicating the promise this industry holds.
That being said, to achieve growth, the market should also be carefully balanced . Policymakers are encouraged to weigh the need for fiscal revenue against the importance of fostering a competitive, consumer-friendly, and transparent environment where players and operators can thrive. Operators will be required to adapt quickly as regulations change, without creating doubt or mistrust among users.
The landscape will continue to evolve, but there is currently a lot of tension as the country stands at a crossroads. The hope is that it will find the right balance between taxation, innovation, and regulation to ensure long-term success.